¹ú²ú91ÓÈÎ︣ÀûÔÚÏß¹Û¿´

Instructor: Joshua Mozersky

Calculating Probability, Understanding Risk, Reasoning about the Future.

Will the future resemble the past? How should we decide what to do? Can groups make rational decisions? What is the best way to draw conclusions about the unknown? Are we living in a computer simulation? These questions have two things in common. First, their solutions continue to evade philosophers and others who have thought about them. Secondly, their answers depend on probabilistic, inductive reasoning.

This course introduces the basic concepts, tools, and techniques of probability and inductive logic so that students will be equipped to reflect thoughtfully and precisely on these and related questions. Topics to be covered include: the calculation of probabilities; the uses of probability in decision-making; paradoxes of decision; the nature of probability; uncertainty and risk; the relationship between probability and statistics; and the philosophical problem of induction. No prior familiarity with probability or logic is assumed.

No prior familiarity with philosophy is assumed, so students from other departments are warmly welcomed.